Indianomics

After months of denial, US has finally declared that it is in recession. Though there are two different definitions of recession and the way it is measured, US is officially in recession using both definitions.

First - Economy is in recession if it sees a negative growth of 2 successive quarters.

Second - Significant decline in the economic activity from its peak, spread across various indicators like industrial production, employment income and other indicators.

NBER, which is a non-profit organization is responsible for this study. While its not clear why it took 12 months to declare that the US is in recession, it will last until mid-2009. That is a good news.

The oil rate is hovering below $50 per barrel and the OPEC countries are worried. Their ideal rate for oil is $75 per barrel. Most of the OPEC nations depend only on oil exports and are alien to the notion of a democracies or tax. If the oil demand decreases, like it is happening now, OPEC nations will no longer be insulated against the global contagion.

With most of Europe already in recession and OPEC nation looking at a dwindling oil demand - who will save the world economy?

Were you thinking Barack Obama? I was thinking India and China.

*Image source : http://www.whatpricejusticeblog.com/